My BHAP (Big Harry Audacious Predictions) For 2012 NFL Season

Training camp is starting and all the talking heads are going off like you wouldn’t believe. As an arm-chair QB I’m here to throw my 2 cents into the conversation. I’m not touching the Jets situation because we all know that Mark Sanchez will get pulled at some point for Tebow. How long it lasts is to be determined. All predictions are non-refundable unless true. Here’s my big crazy calls for 2012:

The #1 and #2 picks prove why they are #1 and #2 picks. They won’t be a Manning-Leaf pairing or a Bledsoe-Mirer. They could be a Newton-Gabbert pick (jury is out on this, given they’ve had one year and Newton was all-time great and Gabbert was pretty much all-time horrible). Luck-Griffin could go down as one of the best 1-2 picks of all time. RG3 wins year 1. Luck wins career. Luck is the new Manning, no matter how you cut it, the team will build the pieces he needs because you can determine how he will consistently play the game. RG3 has a rougher go because of his ability to run. No he isn’t a run first QB (looking at you Mike Vick), nor is he stuck in the pocket  pretty much waiting to be sacked when no one is open (looking at you Brady and Cutler). RG3 waits for pressure and moves. The problem is his owner. Dan Snyder is an idiot. He pays bad contracts. Chances of RG3 having a franchise actually built around him that compliments him and helps him develop are about 1-1,00,000. In short, Luck all time great. RG3 statistically great, but never what you see from #1. Which is a shame, because I’d love to see some Luck-Griffin Super Bowls.

Chad Ocho-Johnson will not be on the Dolphins by week 6. Chad, I hate to break it to you, but you didn’t suck because the Pats limited “you-being-you”. You sucked because you couldn’t grasp the playbook, had no idea what was going on and commented how “in awe” you were of the offense after the first game. You proceeded for a terrible season and then you were cut. We get it, you’re not a complex offense, audible and route precision guy. You like play action, simple routes and relying on your god given talent to get open. No one hates you for that, that’s what has made you great, 4 seasons ago. Don’t go back on the Pats and say it was them stifling your personality, because if that’s what it was, then you’re an idiot. Instead try and come into this new system and dominate. Problem is that you know what this offense is going to rely on? Route running, audibles and precision execution. So, I hope you enjoy the “Hard Knocks” bump, but after that, unless you end up in San Francisco or Minnesota, don’t count on being the “old you”. Take up a job as a promoter and move on to your next great career calling.

The Saints will not make the playoffs. Don’t disillusion yourself with the idea the loss of Sean Payton is minimal and that Drew Brees will be the “coach and offensive coordinator on the field” because it won’t happen. These sanctions and losses are huge. The Saints won’t make the playoffs and the value of a head coach is completely and totally cemented. You need a great QB and a great head coach to contend. Miss the coach that can manage and lead a team and you’re going no where (way too many examples here but, any Carson Palmer Team, and so far every Jay Cutler and Phillip Rivers team, etc.). The QB is not the onfield coach and never should be, he’s the on field leader making adjustments during a play, not determining the strategy of the offense in-game. Saints miss the playoff and the Falcons win the conference. Panthers are very close. Bucs tie with the Saints.

The Patriots and Packers get better on defense. They both finish mid-20s in defense for the year. After that, who knows. The NFL playoffs are becoming a competition of who’s hot heading in (which I absolutely love and hate). They both are tops in their division for the season and finally finish my dream by playing in a super shoot out Super Bowl for the ages. I can dream, but both defenses will be better. The real question is how their running game will do. The lack of running worries me but isn’t a killer for them (last year both had great seasons despite iffy running games). If both defenses improve to a mid-league level, it’s going to be tough to stop either team from winning a lot of games. (On a side note, I recommend you draft BJGE some where near the 4-5 round in your fantasy draft. He doesn’t fumble, finds the end zone, has had relatively low carry numbers and is moving to a run first offense. He will thrive in Cincy.)

Kevin Kolb will win. He sucked last year and John Skelton was pretty good. Kolb wins the battle (he’s paid way more, so he wins by default at the start of the season) but also wins on the field. Why? Larry Fitzgerald. Beanie Wells. Michael Floyd. Early Doucet. They win the NFC West… No wait, that’s the 49ers, still. But the Cardinals finish a respcetable 10-6 2nd. Which still isn’t enough to win 1 of the 2 wild card spots in the NFC because the NFC North has a claim on both right now (Bears and Lions).

No surprise, but we’re in for more historic passing numbers. Passing numbers have been climbing regularly for pretty close to a decade. I don’t think we’ll see the all time passing number broken again this year, but don’t be surprised to see the total touchdown number broken again. Not that of a bold prediction, but still a season where someone throws 51+ touchdowns is impressive.

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